Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff8d3846934cd02ea88b433922e6a836f2c4bfa6293264a77735add8e3e0e33f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 41c | 714.1$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.31 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 48c | 680.96$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.78 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 51c | 444.92$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.92 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 55c | 309.86$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 151.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 59c | 82.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed No | 41c | 82.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 44c | 70.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed No | 43c | 61.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 50c | 60.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 42c | 58.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 51.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…0de3backed Yes | 71c | 43.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 38c | 39.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…6754backed Yes | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 57c | 37.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed No | 43c | 35.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 49c | 35.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 41c | 31.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa052…925abacked No | 42c | 29.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 28.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 27.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 20.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 54c | 20.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.