TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$170,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,211

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,098 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x138c…b84abacked No1c2,710$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf325…f8e0backed Yes66c1,663$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.984047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes53c1,276$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.5135429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes59c1,254$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.35,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No30c992.73$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8834651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed No64c933.63$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.765565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes35c912.25$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.9488628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes50c889.97$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.0719338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No2c739.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.41,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No2c739.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.111,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes58c706.82$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.5325362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2097…7dc3backed Yes38c539.5$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.091631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa811…75b8backed No69c533.99$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.596070%42 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1225…e17fbacked No4c510$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.216530.9%51 W · 114 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No37c504.92$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.842,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes33c502.42$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.7656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e7c…411abacked Yes30c471.84$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.271650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+38.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No33c429.05$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb5…5d24backed Yes23c401.66$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.36425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes37c386.35$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.6954043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No29c365.18$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes76c364.53$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.683956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes41c331.4$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.044,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0727079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes18c296.12$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.8234918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes41c294.57$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.4523633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No57c293.45$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.161,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes71c288.42$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1526834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No67c280.07$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.4163656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb89b…1a22backed No45c265.49$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209783.5%81 W · 16 L+26.5wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+58.5%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No76c263$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8881165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No12c261.17$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.752,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes35c253.03$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.981,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb32d…c4b8backed Yes77c250$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c233.61$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.271,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes17c211.74$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.7490040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbf83…8508backed Yes33c210.3$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.31346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+50.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3235465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1c…7f60backed Yes69c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Yes71c199.73$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.544257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes40c174.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.081,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes36c170.01$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5193034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c159$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.259,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c156.97$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.854,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes30c154.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.620025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No64c153.73$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.148955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5130…818bbacked Yes20c151.78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.423318.2%6 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-52%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes37c139.7$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3910843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No71c130.2$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.022,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes26c130.12$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.843324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No80c124.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.886173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No43c118.36$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.881,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x704d…aceebacked Yes30c117.26$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.971428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes24c104.42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.3222023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes30c100.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6553437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes21c100.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.191,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…a5adbacked Yes48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.31747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0823…a970backed Yes35c99.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes57c99.51$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5130428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes35c95.29$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7718038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes40c95$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes24c92.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.222846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No52c91.77$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7218052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes22c82.03$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.584124.4%10 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes37c80$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.42,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9954…b725backed No25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208360.2%50 W · 33 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes23c79.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9932738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes19c72.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4656131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f6…9f18backed No64c70.31$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4514659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes58c69.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3913959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf84d…5e65backed No44c68.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309256.5%52 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes27c68.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6724238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes32c68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed No38c66.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4511122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes24c66.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5728742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No47c65.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7999962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No76c65.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5062770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe481…32a3backed Yes25c64.02$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.943043.3%13 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+58.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c58.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes41c57.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.411,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes33c55.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0411947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7284…b0f2backed Yes22c53.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8711242%47 W · 65 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e9a…8e18backed Yes32c53.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.042642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54cf…8429backed Yes36c53.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes21c52.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6945236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes65c52.54$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.451,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes27c51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3534846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9269…5731backed Yes35c50.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.984632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b14…5022backed Yes24c50.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.04933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5a1…2841backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+66.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked No29c48.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9226828.7%77 W · 191 L-1.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed No67c47.76$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9114359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes45c43.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.295852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes35c43.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.075152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1907…d0c9backed No30c40.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…8d97backed Yes69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1e07backed Yes66c39.9$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.597544%33 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.