TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,677

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,399 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51f6…9f18backed Yes0c16,449$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5814659.6%87 W · 59 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6c6…2ff3backed Yes0c8,586$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.67156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes43c3,854$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.372,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2097…7dc3backed Yes19c1,763$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.611631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed No54c1,522$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.1525362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed No76c1,365$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.1741845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes48c1,068$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.5735429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No69c968.66$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.172,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes30c816$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.771,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes63c798.96$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.6654043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes3c600$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b37…2e48backed No56c585.96$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.397170.4%50 W · 21 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+27.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf14a…86d2backed Yes2c540$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f76…6cd3backed Yes13c506.69$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-67.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes14c489.97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.385,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No35c489.47$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.1690040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5130…818bbacked No38c489.47$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.473318.2%6 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-52%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes23c455.63$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.4156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d0f…c81fbacked No79c379.14$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes24c364.38$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6910633%35 W · 71 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No63c362.84$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No58c330.06$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.913622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes26c313.06$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5588628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes35c308.27$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.112,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes37c291.41$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes4c286.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5326834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No59c283.91$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5363656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb5…5d24backed Yes23c283.53$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.83425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c280.33$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.534,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes74c271.03$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.0386420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes13c231$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0334918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes50c222.07$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.411122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No60c208.04$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.181,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No54c200$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6416335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa811…75b8backed No80c188.58$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.266070%42 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes19c188.56$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5123633.5%79 W · 157 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d01…63f0backed No50c177.33$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.973265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes30c172.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2816626.5%44 W · 122 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Yes61c164.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed No76c163$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.751758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c162.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No48c156.17$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c99…3ef0backed No54c152.27$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.138955.1%49 W · 40 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.556118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes70c150$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10535465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes12c137.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6493034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x27ce…f2a5backed Yes23c133.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.453324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No72c130.2$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.352,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes21c126.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c125.81$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes39c125.03$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9310163.4%64 W · 37 L+8.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes46c125$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.754831.3%15 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cac…1fbabacked No39c115.2$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.84650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef12…8e61backed Yes30c115$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.174231%13 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes35c113.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.043,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes30c110.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.794030%12 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No66c106.62$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.251,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes17c103.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1322023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes16c103.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5694919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes18c101.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.364124.4%10 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x851d…a743backed No74c99.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.999552.6%50 W · 45 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9269…5731backed No78c99.9$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.164632.6%15 W · 31 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x05ac…6d71backed No80c97.89$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.581560%9 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No46c93$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes40c92.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No76c91.92$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0681165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa907…ba96backed Yes34c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4510955%60 W · 49 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fec…9d17backed Yes17c90.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.845152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes41c88$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2513424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb211…10b3backed Yes28c87.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.469453.2%50 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f30…6866backed Yes23c86.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.162846.4%13 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+54.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes35c82.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4518038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3085…a5adbacked Yes25c82.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.621747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes35c80$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc868…7bd7backed No64c79.77$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.983863.2%24 W · 14 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes22c78.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3340741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes14c75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2195852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3980…6674backed Yes64c73.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.022429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No64c73.14$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.513959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes53c70.36$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4969…6d77backed Yes23c70$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe187…ab05backed No52c69.09$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.961181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick67cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed No39c66.75$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.416530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes60c66.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c66.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6642976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No58c65.96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.471,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ce0…5a0abacked Yes61c65.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes32c64.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.916320.2%33 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed No40c64.24$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5411950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No40c64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.421,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes32c61.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes27c59.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed No40c59.96$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.978252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No43c58.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.341,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes53c56.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.784367.4%29 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes32c55.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8313430.6%41 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes41c53.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9870133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes57c52.84$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabea…3257backed No76c52.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.636473.4%47 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick75cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.