TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Pcific Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Pcific Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,387
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,522

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,387 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed Pcific Esports45c26,867$12,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,172.9224145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere56c7,706$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,405.7353159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere50c6,953$3,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,493.168458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed Natus Vincere54c6,403$3,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,945.2825855.4%143 W · 115 L+14.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere70c6,265$4,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.2240945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Pcific Esports23c6,220$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,435.0126650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere60c5,891$3,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,382.4853455.2%295 W · 239 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere58c5,662$3,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,387.3556557.7%326 W · 239 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere61c5,156$3,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,024.665559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Natus Vincere59c3,197$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.795955.9%33 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Pcific Esports37c2,899$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.551,28132.1%411 W · 870 L-67.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Pcific Esports26c2,628$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.7213449.3%66 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Pcific Esports35c1,778$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.471,60737.5%603 W · 1,004 L-75.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere54c1,720$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.0594361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Natus Vincere52c1,317$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.278562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Natus Vincere67c1,132$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.6393649.3%461 W · 475 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Pcific Esports32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32042035%147 W · 273 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Pcific Esports23c860$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.813843.5%60 W · 78 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Pcific Esports37c819.32$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.851,36538.9%531 W · 834 L-60.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Natus Vincere62c810.12$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.8956551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Natus Vincere63c764.23$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.6910455.8%58 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Pcific Esports31c741.66$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0922539.1%88 W · 137 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Pcific Esports49c733.92$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.4451849.6%257 W · 261 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Pcific Esports40c714.04$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.7562156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Pcific Esports37c700$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25932047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Pcific Esports36c611.8$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.8223836.1%86 W · 152 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed Pcific Esports26c606.7$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15511546.1%53 W · 62 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked Pcific Esports34c586.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006867.6%46 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed Pcific Esports16c554$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.845444.4%24 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Pcific Esports28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404932.7%16 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Natus Vincere72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1405349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Pcific Esports30c479.73$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.4919656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Pcific Esports46c474.51$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.8639047.9%187 W · 203 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Pcific Esports42c463.69$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.281,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Pcific Esports59c455.16$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.091662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0181…9b5fbacked Pcific Esports23c450$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.927850%139 W · 139 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Pcific Esports15c442.77$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5181834.8%285 W · 533 L-61.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Pcific Esports35c427.57$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3621055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7100…c12abacked Pcific Esports35c394.43$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.494235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Pcific Esports34c340.69$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5191333.2%303 W · 610 L-89.8wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed Natus Vincere60c316.75$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.1313355.6%74 W · 59 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Pcific Esports40c311.8$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.511,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5747…7fdfbacked Natus Vincere65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.6963056.3%355 W · 275 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Pcific Esports31c306.03$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.378736.8%32 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Pcific Esports44c302.25$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.221,25349.5%620 W · 633 L-3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed Pcific Esports35c284.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.516031.3%50 W · 110 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Pcific Esports35c240$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8422455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab87…117ebacked Natus Vincere77c236.65$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.652152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere64c225.42$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2593248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6505…1feebacked Natus Vincere73c206.72$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.728654.7%47 W · 39 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Pcific Esports42c205.13$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.751,31243.8%575 W · 737 L-44.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Natus Vincere78c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.486639.4%26 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Natus Vincere75c186.09$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.31,49546.6%696 W · 799 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cef…dbcbbacked Pcific Esports11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020546.8%96 W · 109 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Pcific Esports42c174.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7475142.7%321 W · 430 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe2b…20e4backed Natus Vincere58c165$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.31450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…4eecbacked Natus Vincere68c161.63$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4817642.6%75 W · 101 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Pcific Esports27c158.35$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1960423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Pcific Esports21c151.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7951344.6%229 W · 284 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b8d…4b6fbacked Natus Vincere78c127.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.857265.3%47 W · 25 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed Pcific Esports24c124.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033546.6%156 W · 179 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Pcific Esports44c116.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.670543.5%307 W · 398 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4967…340bbacked Natus Vincere65c114.54$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.097163.4%45 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Pcific Esports32c107.74$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6578344.1%345 W · 438 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b16…9f80backed Natus Vincere66c107.09$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4118460.9%112 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Natus Vincere70c101.09$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.098748.3%42 W · 45 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Natus Vincere78c96.6$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.257534.7%26 W · 49 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Pcific Esports46c96.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3357550.6%291 W · 284 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed Pcific Esports15c89.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8710217.6%18 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9562…fbd4backed Natus Vincere70c85.97$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.174551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Natus Vincere54c83.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3315535.5%55 W · 100 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Pcific Esports25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051948.4%251 W · 268 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bed…5cd6backed Pcific Esports48c79.77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.662433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09b7…5f6bbacked Natus Vincere73c79.64$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6410061%61 W · 39 L+9.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xeeb6…052dbacked Pcific Esports47c76.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.011656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d9…ac79backed Natus Vincere67c74.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.612853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe41c…afabbacked Pcific Esports34c73.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512949.6%64 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Pcific Esports39c66.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1640731.7%129 W · 278 L-13.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe598…e597backed Pcific Esports47c61.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.13852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…9339backed Pcific Esports45c57.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8919439.2%76 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f5…b6e3backed Natus Vincere77c51.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.951154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed Natus Vincere49c50.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.836373%46 W · 17 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked Natus Vincere64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.819951.8%103 W · 96 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8249…9169backed Pcific Esports42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26bd…e53bbacked Natus Vincere78c44.62$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.622955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Natus Vincere78c42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2446746.7%218 W · 249 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e45…4b13backed Natus Vincere75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104065%26 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick73cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed Natus Vincere55c37.48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9765347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c80…e19bbacked Natus Vincere56c35.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.723066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+25.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked Pcific Esports35c35.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4334247.7%163 W · 179 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab1…638bbacked Natus Vincere71c33.12$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.655466.7%36 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Natus Vincere70c31.74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5355637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed Natus Vincere61c31.27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1316963.3%107 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere57c31.2$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.568949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b55…cbc6backed Pcific Esports48c30.65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.714456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed Pcific Esports49c30.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514443.1%62 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Natus Vincere72c29.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2639166%258 W · 133 L+24.0wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Natus Vincere68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.417156.3%40 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab6…4880backed Natus Vincere58c29.07$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0720547.8%98 W · 107 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed Natus Vincere66c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.523056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.