TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Pcific Esports - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Pcific Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$218,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$218,546

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,635 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4b1d…76a0backed Pcific Esports27c41,765$11,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,232.851060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+39%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Pcific Esports16c32,923$5,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,267.736643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Pcific Esports47c17,956$8,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,398.9640945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere62c5,290$3,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,998.3753159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Natus Vincere66c4,005$2,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,374.164932.7%16 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere29c2,899$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.6368949.5%341 W · 348 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Pcific Esports62c2,775$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.0251344.6%229 W · 284 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Natus Vincere75c2,564$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.591,36538.9%531 W · 834 L-60.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere48c2,388$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23365559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Natus Vincere57c1,592$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.781,60737.5%603 W · 1,004 L-75.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere62c1,575$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.4156557.7%326 W · 239 L+35.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Natus Vincere67c1,454$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.5913449.3%66 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd052…563dbacked Pcific Esports58c1,310$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.845552.7%29 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Natus Vincere77c1,262$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.5381834.8%285 W · 533 L-61.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Pcific Esports47c1,079$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.5594361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere63c1,006$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.3153455.2%295 W · 239 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere67c937.07$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.2368458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Pcific Esports17c929.58$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.035464.8%35 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Pcific Esports20c900$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17978562.8%493 W · 292 L+56.2wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Natus Vincere75c834.97$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.777156.3%40 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86df…d902backed Pcific Esports32c757.16$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.1813355.6%74 W · 59 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf529…755fbacked Pcific Esports49c719$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.3110341.7%43 W · 60 L-0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Pcific Esports22c665.44$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.8142035%147 W · 273 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Pcific Esports17c648.39$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2356551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked Pcific Esports47c643.69$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006867.6%46 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed Pcific Esports18c546.11$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9811546.1%53 W · 62 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Pcific Esports37c545.3$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035157.3%201 W · 150 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Pcific Esports31c520.13$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7819656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked Pcific Esports19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956636.4%24 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Pcific Esports25c499.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12526450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Pcific Esports60c487.96$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.071,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Natus Vincere69c434.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.786456.3%36 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Pcific Esports30c430$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12932047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Pcific Esports50c409.76$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.881650%8 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Natus Vincere14c400$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3444932.7%16 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed Natus Vincere18c393.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.8333546.6%156 W · 179 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Pcific Esports50c375.8$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.95052%26 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Pcific Esports45c329.14$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5739047.9%187 W · 203 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Pcific Esports50c324.32$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.162850%14 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere69c306.44$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.993248.1%448 W · 484 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b16…9f80backed Pcific Esports36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10818460.9%112 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe896…a4c7backed Pcific Esports71c281.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005650%28 W · 28 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3135…f6c3backed Natus Vincere74c270.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.243253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…4eecbacked Natus Vincere77c264.75$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9917642.6%75 W · 101 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Natus Vincere71c263.23$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3453742.1%226 W · 311 L-15.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Pcific Esports36c255.79$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.271,61245.1%727 W · 885 L-25.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb758…4699backed Pcific Esports18c245.56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449253.3%49 W · 43 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Natus Vincere53c245.46$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.751,31243.8%575 W · 737 L-44.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed Natus Vincere49c245$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.955349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b8…31e6backed Pcific Esports30c243.37$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8836446.2%168 W · 196 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Pcific Esports16c238$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0860423%139 W · 465 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c84…6a34backed Pcific Esports31c221.94$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Pcific Esports52c220$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.435142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Pcific Esports36c217.52$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.8522539.1%88 W · 137 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed Pcific Esports31c196.78$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6116031.3%50 W · 110 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Natus Vincere69c182$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4266638%253 W · 413 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Natus Vincere69c167.2$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.161,49546.6%696 W · 799 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0181…9b5fbacked Pcific Esports39c150$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.327850%139 W · 139 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked Pcific Esports20c148.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3051948.4%251 W · 268 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Pcific Esports28c146$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3139350.9%200 W · 193 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6505…1feebacked Natus Vincere50c139.45$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.458654.7%47 W · 39 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Pcific Esports26c138.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0885138.1%324 W · 527 L-51.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed Pcific Esports32c123.44$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3934853.7%187 W · 161 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Natus Vincere70c122.86$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.867156.3%40 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Pcific Esports17c115$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.551,28132.1%411 W · 870 L-67.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Pcific Esports26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4467250.6%340 W · 332 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Pcific Esports34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8875142.7%321 W · 430 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Pcific Esports50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Pcific Esports50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507544%33 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf4d…6eebbacked Natus Vincere70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2cc…893cbacked Natus Vincere32c99.58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.861241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Pcific Esports55c95.79$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9257550.6%291 W · 284 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Natus Vincere16c93.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7519945.2%90 W · 109 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39d…aa9dbacked Natus Vincere33c90.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.342740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Pcific Esports50c90$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4515535.5%55 W · 100 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b7…5f6bbacked Natus Vincere70c87.75$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7510061%61 W · 39 L+9.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Pcific Esports25c86.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5612550.4%63 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Natus Vincere35c86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.999945.9%459 W · 540 L-27.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Pcific Esports50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4013933.1%46 W · 93 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53d3…cc48backed Pcific Esports50c74.21$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.112138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed Natus Vincere19c70.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.127145.1%32 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc815…ecfabacked Pcific Esports66c67.76$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4516452.4%86 W · 78 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cef…dbcbbacked Natus Vincere77c65.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1920546.8%96 W · 109 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed Pcific Esports73c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.965347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b81…613dbacked Natus Vincere71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.24641.3%19 W · 27 L-8.7wins-0.19per pick60cpaid-34.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Pcific Esports50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307853.8%42 W · 36 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked Pcific Esports50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0932…ba5abacked Pcific Esports58c51.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-72.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a30…5d10backed Pcific Esports73c50.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed Pcific Esports49c50.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.913743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f56…50edbacked Pcific Esports50c41.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.661855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b55…cbc6backed Natus Vincere72c40.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.514456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb6…052dbacked Natus Vincere72c40.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.511656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde55…1d2abacked Natus Vincere69c37.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.635466.7%36 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked Natus Vincere72c36$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0834247.7%163 W · 179 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Pcific Esports77c33.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.141,25349.5%620 W · 633 L-3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Pcific Esports51c31.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.988251.2%42 W · 40 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Natus Vincere70c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.859455.3%52 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Natus Vincere70c27.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.217753.2%41 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x656e…9339backed Pcific Esports43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7519439.2%76 W · 118 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.