TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Minnesota Twinsof St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,561

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,563 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals80c4,358$3,484 inLost-$3,483.9911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minnesota Twins26c1,767$468 inWon+$1,299.064,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins20c1,431$288 inWon+$1,143.438,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins45c1,250$561 inWon+$689.14,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked St. Louis Cardinals20c612.38$120 inLost-$120.22,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed St. Louis Cardinals57c519$296 inLost-$295.8388053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Minnesota Twins46c326.09$150 inWon+$176.093775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.4wins+0.20per pick56cpaid+36.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals32c133.5$43 inLost-$42.768,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Twins67c123.61$83 inWon+$41.073,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins71c116$82 inWon+$33.535,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals46c60$27 inLost-$27.456,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals31c51.47$16 inLost-$16.0112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals47c50$24 inLost-$23.52,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Minnesota Twins53c50$27 inWon+$23.526762.2%166 W · 101 L+43.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed St. Louis Cardinals47c42.48$20 inLost-$20.164,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Minnesota Twins27c40$11 inWon+$29.277836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins48c22.14$11 inWon+$11.446,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.