MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50613ed31fe49749471eb530cf5a6b41ea0e85617158acc59583ecfe05f4509b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 46c | 5,821$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,143.5 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 54c | 5,555$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.7 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 38c | 3,662$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 2,799$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 54c | 750$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Under | 54c | 599.99$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Under | 53c | 599.98$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 72c | 548.44$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.66 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 508.01$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.18 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 68c | 352.55$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.37 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 50c | 325.23$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.6 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Over | 47c | 325.09$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.3 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 45c | 320$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 279.3$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 47c | 255.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.31 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 51c | 246.81$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 45c | 220.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 37c | 142.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 74c | 121.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…e4a7backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 114.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 108.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 47c | 88.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 57c | 77.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 61.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…668dbacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 55c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 57c | 38.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 73c | 36.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Under | 38c | 26.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 62c | 22.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1587…6f17backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b67…5347backed Under | 54c | 19.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 61c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.