MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3b41c5cbad3c0e2c96d801672c38ba2d840011e61c0b65bf3ef5c0da50f22aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 3,837$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.36 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 2,050$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.5 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 1,488$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 984$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.24 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 546$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 185.94$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 163.71$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 160$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 151.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.59 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 145.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 120.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.91 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 111.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 99.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 90.39$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 77.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 66.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 55.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 53.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 70c | 52.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 47.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Minnesota Twins | 29c | 47.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375f…b494backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Minnesota Twins | 74c | 36.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 33.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 30.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 26.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Minnesota Twins | 54c | 25.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 24.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Minnesota Twins | 73c | 24.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Minnesota Twins | 67c | 20.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Minnesota Twins | 65c | 19.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 16.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…0ce3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 15.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.