TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,529
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,529 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd5e…9040backed St. Louis Cardinals37c3,837$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,398.361,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Minnesota Twins61c2,050$1,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250.51,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins64c1,488$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.188,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked St. Louis Cardinals39c984$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.242,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins61c546$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.816,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3055,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins64c185.94$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins61c163.71$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6611,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Minnesota Twins61c160$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.61,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed St. Louis Cardinals35c151.42$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.593,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e4a…5ba6backed St. Louis Cardinals39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.511542.6%49 W · 66 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins61c150$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.53,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Minnesota Twins37c145.41$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.311,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed St. Louis Cardinals38c120.83$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.914,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Minnesota Twins60c111.7$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.022,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Twins61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.52,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked St. Louis Cardinals38c99.01$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.391,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked St. Louis Cardinals36c99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3670737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed St. Louis Cardinals70c90.39$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1988053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed St. Louis Cardinals40c86$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.646854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals40c86$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.672154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals38c78$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed St. Louis Cardinals38c77.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0429242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Minnesota Twins61c66.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.381,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed St. Louis Cardinals39c64.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.166448.2%320 W · 344 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked St. Louis Cardinals59c63$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6345952.9%243 W · 216 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins41c55.46$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.825,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Twins49c53.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.312,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins70c52.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.656,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Minnesota Twins41c47.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.66,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Minnesota Twins29c47.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6370546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x375f…b494backed St. Louis Cardinals42c42.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.861560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+29.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd6…d4a0backed Minnesota Twins64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.63050%15 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Minnesota Twins74c36.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.862,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed St. Louis Cardinals36c33.92$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.773,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed St. Louis Cardinals40c30.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.122,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals53c26.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Minnesota Twins54c25.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5133864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed St. Louis Cardinals40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Minnesota Twins60c24.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8456851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf5…829cbacked Minnesota Twins73c24.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.833764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+36.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Minnesota Twins67c20.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4427652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Minnesota Twins65c19.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.624243%104 W · 138 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Minnesota Twins74c19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.064,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Minnesota Twins73c16.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.942,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf22b…0ce3backed St. Louis Cardinals68c15.21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.873246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.