MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86fae22c147c239b3547f363169c5ab3aaeb8ea6597e04fecdddbea11fb5ddab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 56c | 17,986$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,985.75 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 5,205$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290.21 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 43c | 5,001$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150.45 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 4,516$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.27 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 57c | 3,759$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.57 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 57c | 3,509$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.77 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 2,129$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.52 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 1,945$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.07 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Under | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 192 | 46.9%90 W · 102 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 46c | 1,093$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.66 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,084$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.64 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 1,067$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…6dddbacked Under | 45c | 1,002$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 42c | 952.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 208 | 48.1%100 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 809.61$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 43c | 697$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.68 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 656.71$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.79 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 55c | 567.37$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.32 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 78c | 525.45$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 44c | 474.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.25 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Under | 27c | 448.15$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Under | 45c | 439.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 352.43$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.49 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 45c | 325.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.69 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 42c | 317.6$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.39 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 46c | 294$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.24 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 242.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 57c | 210.52$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 58c | 175.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…cb64backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 155.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Under | 26c | 111.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 54c | 72.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 58.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 54c | 54.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 27c | 41.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 56c | 38.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 42c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5e…40b4backed Under | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…c784backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 45c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 67c | 17.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 72c | 16.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Over | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.