MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x529a108f368773d8cff0c4a8c585cc2cdb51ddb0266acfd0228ed78b7604e14c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 55c | 15,000$8,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,749.99 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 6,009$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,704.07 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 3,841$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.66 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6285…3f5abacked Under | 52c | 3,231$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680.09 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -70%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 2,283$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.47 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 71c | 817.7$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.79 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 646.43$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.23 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 45c | 619.73$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.88 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Under | 17c | 534.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 39c | 471.95$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.89 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 61c | 400$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 268.65$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.23 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over | 61c | 209.5$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 42c | 194$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.45 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 19c | 192.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 42c | 190.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.42 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 62c | 138.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 62c | 132.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 128.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 54c | 111.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 49c | 111.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 53c | 93.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Over | 54c | 90.74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 88.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 45c | 84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Under | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71d1…a991backed Under | 39c | 79.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 46c | 77.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…7b0abacked Over | 57c | 69.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 30c | 65.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 53c | 56.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dce…f3d5backed Under | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…4b79backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 58c | 46.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 31c | 41.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 28c | 41.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 37c | 41.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 53c | 33.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Over | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 44c | 25.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 44c | 24.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a1…f562backed Under | 63c | 20.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1f…b090backed Under | 63c | 20.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722a…248fbacked Under | 58c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…9dbbbacked Over | 73c | 17.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.