MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x141562bab3e02e665ffb87245edededa8d57c13ff7c97251dd3484682661c378
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 15,000$8,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,430.91 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 9,255$3,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,979.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 43c | 5,052$2,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.01 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 1,900$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.8 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 52c | 799.85$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 474.04$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Minnesota Twins | 29c | 319.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 296.15$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins | 69c | 259.52$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.07 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 215.54$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 214$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.17 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 175$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 60c | 149.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Minnesota Twins | 26c | 144$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Minnesota Twins | 39c | 121.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 120.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 34c | 113.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 13c | 94.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 79.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 73c | 68.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed St. Louis Cardinals | 27c | 68.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Twins | 68c | 49.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Minnesota Twins | 52c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 41.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Minnesota Twins | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 35.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…5ff8backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 35.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 34.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 34.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…a379backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 34.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Minnesota Twins | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Minnesota Twins | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 23.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Minnesota Twins won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.