Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0086e3bda0884ce3e55718d8ccd31e32ec9fb51fd6ae2b51b37b1fe15a5ab191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 184.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 140.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 41c | 122.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 121.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 112.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 59c | 102.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 100.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 99.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 57c | 92.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 85.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 70.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 41c | 68.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 67.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 68c | 64.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 57c | 63.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 25c | 58.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 42c | 55.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 56c | 54.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 54.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…1338backed Yes | 32c | 54.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.57 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 49.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 49.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 58c | 49.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 59c | 45.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 43c | 45.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 42.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 53c | 38.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 55c | 37.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 36.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 60c | 31.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 31.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 46c | 29.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 54c | 25.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 53c | 25.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 55c | 25.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…a381backed No | 55c | 24.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 43c | 23.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 64c | 23.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 76c | 23.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 75c | 21.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 58c | 17.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.