TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,665
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,718

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,665 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays59c6,361$3,730 inLost-$3,730.4112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins42c5,995$2,517 inWon+$3,478.5111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins28c1,580$435 inWon+$1,144.958,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays34c1,200$406 inLost-$405.575,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Toronto Blue Jays33c1,091$360 inLost-$3601,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins67c961.04$639 inWon+$321.822,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins41c855.7$347 inWon+$508.279,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays63c250$158 inLost-$157.54,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Toronto Blue Jays58c233$135 inLost-$135.141,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x891d…b19fbacked Toronto Blue Jays59c120.09$71 inLost-$70.8512746.5%59 W · 68 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Toronto Blue Jays55c90.43$50 inLost-$50.0741836.4%152 W · 266 L-31.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins47c82$39 inWon+$43.246,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays40c71.36$28 inLost-$28.55,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Toronto Blue Jays47c60.68$29 inLost-$28.652,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Miami Marlins62c36.41$23 inWon+$13.841,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Miami Marlins62c36.41$23 inWon+$13.841,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Toronto Blue Jays75c32.07$24 inLost-$24.0569447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcde1…5b34backed Toronto Blue Jays74c27$20 inLost-$19.981526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-48.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays48c26.74$13 inLost-$12.848,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Miami Marlins65c24.59$16 inWon+$8.6626752.8%141 W · 126 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Miami Marlins67c19.54$13 inWon+$6.523854.2%129 W · 109 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.