MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf09184f218659c7293da5935064a80b2ba94e4146945af8231e4f46a3bfe9e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 6,028$2,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,461.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 3,782$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.57 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 3,421$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,079.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 3,105$1,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,914.48 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 2,400$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 2,261$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.74 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 1,542$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.93 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 1,496$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.25 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 318.52$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Toronto Blue Jays | 42c | 304.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 299.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.99 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 261.24$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.13 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 187.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 177.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.13 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 135.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 130.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 114.44$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Miami Marlins | 29c | 93.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 76.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 76.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 67.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 62.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 61.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 61.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 51.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 41.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 39.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 36.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 70c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…5b34backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 30.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 28.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 25.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 23.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Blue Jays | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 18.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.