MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89bd0d5c895c3be83f7768c8cc7aeb889da195f17f5f5f840a1c3c7f5bf73ef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 52c | 2,235$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.31 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 2,063$1,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 1,977$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 52c | 1,799$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.6 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 29c | 1,580$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 1,489$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 27c | 1,417$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.53 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 45c | 1,218$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.29 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 41c | 1,180$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.71 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 60c | 385.77$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 40c | 356.46$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.88 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 52c | 251.08$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 52c | 251.08$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 237$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.56 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 220.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 68c | 217.62$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 73c | 199.31$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.13 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 58c | 192$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.36 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 54c | 178.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Under | 73c | 137.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 52c | 125.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 53c | 110.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 49c | 107$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 52c | 94.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 40c | 75.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 74.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 41c | 56.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…60d0backed Over | 54c | 52.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 53c | 42.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 49c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 52c | 40.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 42c | 38.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 40c | 37.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…95afbacked Under | 72c | 32.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 41c | 30.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Under | 63c | 30.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde1b…5710backed Over | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…f516backed Under | 58c | 25.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x358c…f382backed Over | 51c | 22.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 66c | 22.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x235d…5f76backed Under | 72c | 21.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 74c | 20.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.