MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xded3e3e5765bf4e01335ae2ce131aeceb4112847bcf33419eb53ac7cbe633d1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 1,807$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 1,265$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.95 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 1,137$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 62c | 1,129$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.03 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 994.62$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 679.11$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 446$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 45c | 433.89$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.78 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 60c | 427.25$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.35 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 60c | 413.32$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.99 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed Under | 76c | 357.36$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.82 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 350.95$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 24c | 289.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…1c6abacked Under | 64c | 288.62$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 41c | 215.84$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 28c | 187$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 76c | 171$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 60c | 96.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 23c | 75.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 40c | 49.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb9…888abacked Under | 39c | 37.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Under | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +16.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 37c | 34.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 28.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 77c | 25.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d91…6816backed Under | 50c | 23.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 54c | 21.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 61c | 18.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b4…f91cbacked Under | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…67c9backed Under | 74c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x892e…c0cbbacked Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…fee9backed Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27d1…fcb1backed Under | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b72…c454backed Under | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.