MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8e352573051bf3b78155a89f187270ce5e857483e3a2338b9a925d47cf46d74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 6,217$3,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,988.68 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 4,624$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.45 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 54c | 2,768$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.93 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 1,576$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.9 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 1,409$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.79 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 301 | 50.8%153 W · 148 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed Under | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 57c | 517.54$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 52c | 493.97$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.98 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 490.57$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.61 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 437.65$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.41 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 48c | 389.13$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.35 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 38c | 366.71$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.35 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 299.5$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.91 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 56c | 263.16$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 47c | 170.05$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 54c | 161$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Over | 53c | 147.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 47c | 129.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 104.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 52c | 62.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 52c | 62.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 52c | 62.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 52c | 62.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 52c | 62.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…fc85backed Over | 43c | 62.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 38c | 57.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 51c | 50.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 52c | 50.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Under | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 50c | 41.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 34.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 50c | 34.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 51c | 32.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 52c | 31.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ded…3350backed Over | 51c | 29.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 47c | 27.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x046a…0a3ebacked Under | 57c | 25.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Over | 50c | 24.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…93c3backed Over | 50c | 24.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 48c | 21.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x235d…5f76backed Under | 65c | 18.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.