College Football · resolved market
Spread: North Carolina State (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00d918c24d336699a7b7a1f8dbef6abe039b2ee62a6883b0df05072a72f41929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Carolina Stateof North Carolina State, Memphis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,067,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,444,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,067,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af1…0f7bbacked North Carolina State | 50c | 477,428$237,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239,970.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Memphis | 50c | 185,329$93,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93,061.77 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Memphis | 50c | 100,000$50,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,000 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…9faabacked North Carolina State | 50c | 90,219$45,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,219.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Memphis | 50c | 84,452$42,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,225.76 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Memphis | 51c | 40,000$20,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,200 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Memphis | 50c | 32,450$16,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,348.87 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Memphis | 50c | 31,445$15,723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,722.5 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Memphis | 51c | 25,000$12,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,750 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Memphis | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Memphis | 51c | 15,375$7,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,841.35 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed North Carolina State | 49c | 11,395$5,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,813.36 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Memphis | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Memphis | 51c | 6,670$3,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,369.04 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Memphis | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Memphis | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Memphis | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Memphis | 51c | 2,985$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.35 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Memphis | 52c | 2,914$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.24 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Memphis | 50c | 1,980$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.8 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Memphis | 51c | 1,511$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.45 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Memphis | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Memphis | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Memphis | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Memphis | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked North Carolina State | 48c | 399.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc352…a152backed Memphis | 52c | 220.96$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed North Carolina State | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Memphis | 51c | 106$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Memphis | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Memphis | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Memphis | 52c | 81.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Memphis | 52c | 71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0875…f9d4backed Memphis | 52c | 64.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Memphis | 50c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked North Carolina State | 51c | 48.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Memphis | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Memphis | 52c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Memphis | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…7975backed North Carolina State | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Memphis | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Memphis | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b46…1e90backed Memphis | 52c | 33.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed North Carolina State | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed North Carolina State | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…9fe5backed Memphis | 52c | 28.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed North Carolina State | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked North Carolina State | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Memphis | 52c | 25.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked North Carolina State | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked North Carolina State | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed North Carolina State | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed North Carolina State | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed North Carolina State | 77c | 20.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Memphis | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: North Carolina State (-3.5)this page
- Memphis vs. North Carolina StateNorth Carolina State won
- Memphis vs. North Carolina State: O/U 58.5Under won
- O/U 57.5Under won
- Spread: North Carolina State (-4.5)North Carolina State won
- Spread: North Carolina State (-5.5)North Carolina State won
- Spread: North Carolina State (-6.5)North Carolina State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.