TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,994

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,880 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd36…a832backed Yes48c1,247$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.3965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes58c631.34$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.891,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No21c548.54$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.354,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes43c498.81$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.1410244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes33c440.59$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.631,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes41c375.5$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.654,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No6c344.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.053,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No69c325.33$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.8112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No54c263.36$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.358,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No52c256.13$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.38,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No19c218$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.61,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No48c185$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.584,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No49c167.23$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.143,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes44c154.02$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.786,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8435137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes51c149$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.572,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No60c142.97$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.794,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No53c142.29$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.177,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed No50c138.6$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9623538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No27c136.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.424,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c120.18$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No10c119.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6375546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No25c118.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8853855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes39c103.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.331,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…fc29backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x464c…f570backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2af3…c472backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-39.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x86cc…f46ebacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes40c96.78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.591,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes73c91.8$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.612,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c89.37$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No62c86.18$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4358152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No59c79$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8963538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c77.63$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.12,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c73.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.391,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes57c70.24$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.042,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed No49c69.32$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6923560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes40c68.01$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.885,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes25c68.01$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0130442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No60c62.16$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.643848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes45c61.17$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7633746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes29c58.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.682,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No54c54.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.547,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes37c52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.762,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1293…e575backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51080%8 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.514833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3115246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9676…4374backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.52842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfceb…68ffbacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+75.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe935…5b51backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+56.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5219…7f31backed No71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.535344.5%157 W · 196 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3115345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No67c49.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.641,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db6…e1f8backed No58c49.22$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3211157.7%64 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes52c47.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9125954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes26c47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7857948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No22c46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.065,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes45c44.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.642,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15da…4e2abacked No58c43.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.211963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes55c43.26$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3743441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes33c41.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.032,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes32c39.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.015437%20 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No56c39.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.061,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2220037%74 W · 126 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes75c38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4813588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes34c37.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.531,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes30c37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.949750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No32c36.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.531,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No56c34.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5652758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes30c34.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1110134.7%35 W · 66 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d1f…8c58backed No56c33.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8818038.9%70 W · 110 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes77c33.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6465749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes39c32.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4742148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes36c30.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.943,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a85…651fbacked No68c30.88$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.34,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes37c29.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8418131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No62c27.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.341,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No74c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe01…b8aebacked No61c22.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1426458.7%155 W · 109 L-20.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c18…926abacked Yes46c22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.881631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8116…b2a8backed No68c20.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9712152.1%63 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.629354.3%159 W · 134 L-25.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.