Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c03228274eb68e1f6a5ccf5d68434f75979e213daf03381cc4ec323a5a8a1cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 456.48$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 56c | 294.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.43 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 225.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 196.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 185$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 45c | 139.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 129.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 128.68$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 125.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 125.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 61c | 116.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 29c | 113.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 112.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 110$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 99.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 69c | 94.73$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 52c | 92.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 54c | 92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 82.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 81.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 72c | 76.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 36c | 69.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 39c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 29c | 67.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 46c | 67.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 38c | 66.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 60c | 64.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 40c | 64.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 34c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 61.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed No | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…aa1bbacked Yes | 51c | 58.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 33c | 58.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 36c | 58.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 46c | 57.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2112backed No | 62c | 55.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 61c | 49.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 25c | 47.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 31c | 47.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 42.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 45c | 41.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed Yes | 38c | 41.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 47c | 40.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 53c | 39.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 30c | 38.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 31c | 37.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 49c | 37.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…e575backed No | 58c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 69c | 28.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 28.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 47c | 27.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 47c | 27.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 53c | 24.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 45c | 22.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 20.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed Yes | 52c | 19.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 15.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 69c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.