TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$110,365
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,365 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea32…8870backed Yes8c12,860$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.78911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-82.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No74c7,348$5,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,946.312,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x212b…92c3backed Yes11c5,460$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes40c3,353$1,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.928241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb441…89a1backed Yes8c3,061$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked Yes33c2,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82510445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes7c2,287$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.0976234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No72c1,506$1,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.033,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes33c1,400$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No57c1,298$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.2849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes7c1,137$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5910128.7%29 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf509…67b9backed Yes32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes7c972$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.044837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes8c901.16$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.097935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes21c854$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.784630.4%14 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+85.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No65c821.56$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.9633737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Yes8c800$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6437344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes8c638.02$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0415024%36 W · 114 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes7c600$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6922829.4%67 W · 161 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6238…0523backed Yes33c599.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1982751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No57c595.83$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.3323842.9%102 W · 136 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes7c582$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7444749.4%221 W · 226 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefef…94b8backed Yes8c520$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed No64c500$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1822025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x478a…2deabacked Yes32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4735…d4ebbacked Yes31c400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299e…31a6backed Yes16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Yes25c399.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002556%14 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed Yes9c377.78$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344920.4%10 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0283…e7d3backed Yes9c377.78$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Yes37c365.77$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6451136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009951.5%51 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x749f…714bbacked Yes12c333.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb485…f560backed Yes14c310$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb855…c1bebacked Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Yes30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902650%13 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacbc…e374backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc9…f0b3backed Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995944.1%26 W · 33 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Yes28c286.92$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8111931.1%37 W · 82 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb485…20a5backed Yes38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4984…7aaabacked Yes6c249.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c4…1f38backed Yes7c218.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea8d…e9d3backed Yes47c213.35$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.04742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162425%6 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb85e…e18dbacked Yes26c194.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503250%16 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+27.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0ed…3f00backed Yes6c186.96$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes7c176.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.372924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes31c171.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2516750.9%85 W · 82 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4301…6fc0backed Yes14c170$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Yes7c169.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126533.8%22 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4019943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x002f…6a4ebacked Yes9c152$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fe…025cbacked Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No77c147$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6621041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes26c139.12$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3626433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…244fbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8549…41f8backed Yes33c121.41$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404037.5%15 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x954e…11a6backed Yes46c118$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.28425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x377d…b135backed Yes18c112.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ad…6d7ebacked Yes10c104.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa74f…f510backed Yes23c103.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fcb…4381backed Yes34c102.94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6dd…52dbbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1add…924abacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+150.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd923…aed5backed Yes32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+61.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46e7…c9e4backed Yes15c88.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6170…c8dfbacked Yes11c88.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No69c84.92$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2378248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Yes30c82.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.873234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1421…51d1backed Yes42c82.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2085…dd27backed Yes15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6271…4ac6backed No67c79$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.871546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked No64c78.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.121735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes36c69.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1263645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ec…40edbacked Yes33c68.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.68425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-43.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes30c67.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209856.1%55 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5ed…7b21backed Yes48c64.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5b…1008backed Yes25c64.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed No53c63.21$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.711850%9 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207338.4%28 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa905…d753backed Yes34c59.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+48.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.58251.2%42 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No80c47.67$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.541,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa87f…641ebacked Yes21c47.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4a…04b9backed Yes30c44.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Yes27c44.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.994537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd92b…f80bbacked Yes37c33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.09977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+41.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa55f…ce65backed No68c27.12$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.711471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1cb…fb77backed No57c21.4$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6460…84efbacked No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.91145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbcb…1879backed No52c19.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.62060%12 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9594…fed3backed No79c15.72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.