Fifa International · resolved market
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x019e9d9d20e350774a725daed35d8dd68f97597e16546bd4c8d6d2d17b2a16d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Over | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 462 | 43.5%201 W · 261 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Under | 80c | 6,366$5,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.25 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 20c | 3,363$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.62 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 3,362$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.01 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 19c | 526.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 172 | 18.6%32 W · 140 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 240.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Over | 18c | 215.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 132 | 43.2%57 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 19c | 211.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 237 | 32.1%76 W · 161 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 18c | 204.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Over | 20c | 195$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 360 | 45.3%163 W · 197 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 19c | 147.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Over | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ce…e232backed Over | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…e29ebacked Over | 18c | 81.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 27.8%22 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…3f4cbacked Over | 20c | 79.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d6…b5c9backed Over | 44c | 73.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Over | 18c | 73.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Over | 41c | 60.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 294 | 63.3%186 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 266 | 31.2%83 W · 183 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…5118backed Over | 36c | 54.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 397 | 46.3%184 W · 213 L | -28.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 5.5this page
- Germany vs. Finland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 2.5Over won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5Over won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)Germany won
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)Germany won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.