Fifa International · resolved market
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2720de8f517a54a19434c1543641dcdc0002606bc16c46656894cc4ae8ba036d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 4,964$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.52 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 3,765$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.76 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 79c | 2,523$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.61 | 202 | 62.4%126 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 29c | 2,498$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.72 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 36c | 1,624$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eba…ff9cbacked Over | 24c | 1,095$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.26 | 438 | 26.3%115 W · 323 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2666…ade6backed Over | 58c | 748.78$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.29 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56d…c484backed Under | 75c | 477$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Over | 63c | 419.69$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.92 | 294 | 63.3%186 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 46c | 381.22$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.46 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 49c | 319.03$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.01 | 239 | 40.6%97 W · 142 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 35c | 299.16$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.7 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 35c | 297.04$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 65c | 265.12$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…3d32backed Over | 69c | 242.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 60c | 216.77$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…2885backed Under | 65c | 214.71$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 206.63$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 64c | 191.47$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 37c | 188.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 65c | 178.78$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.05 | 167 | 58.7%98 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Under | 65c | 153.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 279 | 51.6%144 W · 135 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 45c | 132.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 306 | 42.8%131 W · 175 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 39c | 128.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 197 | 46.2%91 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 15c | 126.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…48f2backed Under | 72c | 122.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 87 | 58.6%51 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Over | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Over | 25c | 104.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 251 | 25.1%63 W · 188 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Under | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 203 | 37.9%77 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Over | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Under | 65c | 91.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…cf06backed Over | 19c | 81.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 43c | 79.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 70c | 71.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 147 | 66%97 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 50c | 70.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…9136backed Over | 71c | 65.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 397 | 46.3%184 W · 213 L | -28.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Under | 64c | 58.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7736…c991backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Under | 64c | 54.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 778 | 45%350 W · 428 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Under | 62c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c4…4c57backed Over | 32c | 52.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 35c | 51.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…713fbacked Over | 70c | 48.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 70c | 48.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 236 | 58.1%137 W · 99 L | +20.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…a4d7backed Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…d61bbacked Under | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…eee0backed Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Under | 64c | 36.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 697 | 44.9%313 W · 384 L | +18.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 34c | 33.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 70c | 33.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0f…5c9ebacked Over | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9808…5cfdbacked Under | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 36c | 30.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 848 | 44.3%376 W · 472 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…15b5backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 64c | 25.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Under | 48c | 25.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 515 | 14.2%73 W · 442 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 65c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 481 | 52.4%252 W · 229 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 48c | 21.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 341 | 2.9%10 W · 331 L | -132.4wins | -0.39per pick | 42cpaid | -94%equal weight | 10-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…5118backed Over | 64c | 20.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…ae58backed Under | 66c | 19.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5this page
- Germany vs. Finland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 2.5Over won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5Over won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)Germany won
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)Germany won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.