Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Germany (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb697e4420ba24b7391b622a00f34ed47768360a746b150b619ff53ce99f75d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Germanyof Germany, Finland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb77…ef9ebacked Germany | 73c | 1,371$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.52 | 304 | 65.1%198 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd54a…f538backed Finland | 45c | 1,000$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Germany | 66c | 582$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.88 | 444 | 35.4%157 W · 287 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Germany | 72c | 486.11$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.11 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Finland | 51c | 453.27$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.86 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Finland | 28c | 418.35$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Germany | 74c | 407.42$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Finland | 28c | 399.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.34 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Finland | 22c | 385$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Germany | 71c | 300.04$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Germany | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 294 | 63.3%186 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…36dfbacked Germany | 70c | 247.85$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 145 | 56.6%82 W · 63 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea9…5e86backed Germany | 77c | 237.55$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Finland | 29c | 184.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Finland | 29c | 183.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 172 | 18.6%32 W · 140 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Finland | 26c | 165.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Finland | 27c | 148.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…d9dcbacked Germany | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Germany | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 815 | 54.8%447 W · 368 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Finland | 28c | 119.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…eff9backed Germany | 71c | 112.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 257 | 53.3%137 W · 120 L | +23.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Germany | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 504 | 50.2%253 W · 251 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Germany | 72c | 90.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Germany | 79c | 88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…1910backed Germany | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…0274backed Finland | 31c | 83.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Finland | 29c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 413 | 44.1%182 W · 231 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Germany | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Germany | 72c | 69.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Germany | 73c | 65.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 131 | 59.5%78 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed Finland | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 356 | 19.4%69 W · 287 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96d…1a5bbacked Germany | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…e682backed Germany | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Finland | 29c | 45.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 379 | 50.1%190 W · 189 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…a008backed Germany | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Finland | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…eee0backed Germany | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Germany | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…26afbacked Germany | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…6468backed Germany | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)this page
- Germany vs. Finland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 2.5Over won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 3.5Over won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Germany vs. Finland: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)Germany won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.