TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on July 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,554

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,639 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x802d…d59abacked Yes31c696.09$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.331,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes29c664.23$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.288,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No27c496$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.334,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No67c471.59$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.3210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes71c451.35$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.2319042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No42c429.32$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5653925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No61c400.67$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.354,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No23c299.98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.991,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes69c209.9$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.836,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No55c182.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.189150.5%46 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No22c174.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.434,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No74c172.98$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0154853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No42c158.4$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.72,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes26c142.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.6559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes45c139.25$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.948,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No73c124.97$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.324,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c113.87$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa2c1…b127backed No27c109.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.117020%34 W · 136 L-21.0wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-50.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes28c105.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.681,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed No27c104.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0212853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0066…20a1backed No72c100.86$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.828865.9%58 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd6…5ab1backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.43562.9%22 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed Yes73c99.1$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.761,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No58c98.33$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.392,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes77c98.27$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.014,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No29c92.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.974,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No72c92.77$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.973,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No71c91$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6172042.2%304 W · 416 L+26.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes77c85.97$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9727079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes76c85.86$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6113588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes73c82.12$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.179,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c74.29$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.054,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No74c73.66$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.514,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes32c71.24$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.749,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No64c70$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.871649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No59c70$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.144,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes73c68.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.142,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5764446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No44c67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.492,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No31c63.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.484,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No57c54.62$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.942,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No69c52.33$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.151,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes55c51.92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.551,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4964…4828backed Yes73c50.27$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.779100%9 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No72c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3619259.4%114 W · 78 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No63c49.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4960550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No43c45.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6142366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked Yes68c44.26$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2612357.7%71 W · 52 L-10.9wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No62c43.47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.981,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes46c43.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3662137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cbc…9282backed Yes37c40.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.54633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes62c40.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2450648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.86,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No72c38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No67c36.73$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.73,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No58c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.353,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes43c34.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8882742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No42c33.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0433654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1907…ac1abacked Yes77c33.33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.673560%21 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No71c33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.533,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes77c32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.363253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2706…c6bebacked No65c31.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6731866%210 W · 108 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.22,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No45c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.381,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes45c26.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4612453.2%66 W · 58 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No74c25.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes74c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9325947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No66c21.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.391,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x850f…b208backed No69c21.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.999460.6%57 W · 37 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x868b…f600backed Yes73c20.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.553158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No74c20.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9362275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No70c20.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1749359%291 W · 202 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1042148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd247…792abacked Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1028…1316backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.67852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x51bb…df40backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.621950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1592761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.616946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.615545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.618254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.615345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No63c19.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.639768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No64c19.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.271,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3213637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.