Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x022da6aee8502baa56f0db487ed24c0b07e4a87e00e49b66286b30d0d3f71e48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0216…d434backed Yes | 20c | 3,400$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42fd…96c0backed No | 80c | 3,350$2,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…f211backed No | 59c | 1,900$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…1ab4backed Yes | 41c | 1,900$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 48c | 578.06$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.07 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 424.12$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.66 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 411.03$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 388.85$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 44c | 385.92$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.83 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 335.5$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 49c | 320.93$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.44 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 280.81$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 38c | 260.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 250.44$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.91 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…84f2backed Yes | 42c | 230.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe70…5f45backed Yes | 44c | 227.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 65c | 196.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 45c | 177.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 156.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 41c | 150.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 127.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 126.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 34c | 123.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…bd4ebacked Yes | 34c | 115$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…b79fbacked Yes | 34c | 114.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…0505backed Yes | 39c | 103.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…c972backed Yes | 35c | 99.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 57c | 99.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 40c | 94.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 53c | 94.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 44c | 88.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 84.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae8…59aabacked Yes | 29c | 83.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 66c | 83.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 80.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 40c | 80.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…4326backed Yes | 47c | 72.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 69c | 72.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa526…b3d0backed Yes | 34c | 71.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 69.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 65c | 69.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2f…a13cbacked No | 74c | 69.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 59 | 81.4%48 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 66.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 34c | 62.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 48c | 61.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed Yes | 42c | 60.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 63c | 59.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 66c | 55.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 49c | 53.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 52.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 39c | 50.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 40c | 50.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…87aebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3c…9ed9backed Yes | 40c | 49.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 42c | 47.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…5af6backed No | 64c | 47.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…6acdbacked No | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 46.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 25c | 42.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed No | 66c | 40.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…5a28backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…2ad3backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa753…9c74backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 44c | 38.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 38.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 54c | 37.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 42c | 36.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 33.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 37c | 32.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 61c | 32.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 64c | 31.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 66c | 30.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…58cebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5390…1649backed No | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 69c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…f2bcbacked No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 26.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 75c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed Yes | 45c | 26.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 50c | 26.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 59c | 25.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 47c | 24.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 12°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.