Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dff844f37e4458e719a3741e1813bcacf654032872a35da9b90acb5597a6a7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,350$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.19 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 784.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 459.13$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 24c | 439.8$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.09 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 410.32$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.61 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 391.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 16c | 372.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.09 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 372.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.79 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 342.47$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 69c | 300$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…9d0dbacked Yes | 12c | 290.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.98 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 9c | 280.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.42 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 19c | 264.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.77 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 65c | 263.26$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 10c | 257.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.17 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 11c | 255.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.27 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed Yes | 40c | 249.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.12 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 24c | 246.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.13 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 8c | 232.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.42 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 17c | 190.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 30c | 188.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 71c | 188.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.46 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 170$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 169.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.53 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e43…c9bebacked Yes | 49c | 157.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 157.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 16c | 155.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 67c | 149.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.94 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3119…a6d9backed Yes | 80c | 146.07$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 15c | 140.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked Yes | 11c | 130.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…e685backed Yes | 12c | 124.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 16c | 124.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 122.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 120.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcda7…668fbacked Yes | 23c | 120.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 23c | 119.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.46 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 114.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 18c | 112.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 65c | 96.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 19c | 88.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 21c | 87.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 22c | 80.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 29c | 75.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…0c24backed Yes | 27c | 73.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 35c | 71.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b8…5b9cbacked Yes | 24c | 65.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 43c | 56.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 51c | 55.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 32c | 51.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 50.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 67c | 50.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…e020backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6c…9e8dbacked No | 66c | 44.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 68c | 42.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 57c | 42.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 73c | 42.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8988…1559backed Yes | 29c | 41.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 26c | 40.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 32c | 39.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e7…6762backed Yes | 78c | 37.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…0505backed Yes | 56c | 37.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 66c | 35.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 33c | 33.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 62c | 32.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…4326backed Yes | 69c | 31.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 64c | 30.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 47c | 30.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c07…65ddbacked Yes | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 47c | 28.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec3f…f5e8backed No | 44c | 27.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…b0aebacked Yes | 45c | 26.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…9c08backed Yes | 40c | 26.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 73c | 26.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…a973backed No | 77c | 25.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 60c | 25.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8417…fde5backed Yes | 69c | 24.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…1cd5backed Yes | 78c | 19.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 74c | 16.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…dbadbacked Yes | 71c | 15.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 72c | 15.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 72c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 77c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…513abacked Yes | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 12°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.