Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02884d8d9bfc6a7e58772ea0874b961eb2bb900782b21846cd3be277a800c94a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 77c | 2,541$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.13 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed Yes | 23c | 2,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.99 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 386.37$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 76c | 350.04$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 72c | 291.67$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 231.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 23c | 217$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 214$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 23c | 147$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 28c | 97.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 25c | 87.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 25c | 81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 27c | 78.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 28c | 60.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 27c | 48.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 47.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 44.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed Yes | 25c | 43.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 40.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 73c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e3…3169backed No | 76c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.