Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x792105069d6d6cad52cdab3f02d502ad2819374ef99ae153fbcef27b367f75f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 0c | 2,993$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa391…5666backed No | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 24c | 744.8$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.83 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 9c | 471.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 57c | 315.65$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.81 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 300.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 58c | 294.98$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 6c | 262$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 40c | 250$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 50c | 221.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…6e42backed No | 8c | 219.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 56c | 205.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 198.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 162.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 36c | 139.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 50c | 136.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 134.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 39c | 130$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 39c | 110.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 71c | 77.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 61c | 73.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 64.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 56c | 63.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 61.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 60.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 65c | 56.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 55.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 69c | 52.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 59c | 50.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked No | 42c | 41.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 59c | 39.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 59c | 38.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 59c | 37.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 49c | 31.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed Yes | 63c | 31.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 30.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 58c | 30.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 38c | 29.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 46c | 29.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed Yes | 75c | 26.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 25.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 71c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.