CS2 · resolved market
Will Aurora Gaming win ESL Pro League Season 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02ae0ddfcda7a5b58cecea7b4b47d4553b9cd6404a6a5e9d4475e2430a0f458b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x098b…1fa5backed No | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 45c | 4,263$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.32 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ef9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,079$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Yes | 33c | 861.4$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.98 | 392 | 48.7%191 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…1721backed Yes | 45c | 541.72$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Yes | 14c | 401.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 219 | 56.2%123 W · 96 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 66c | 306.88$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 68c | 239.31$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 8c | 198.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Yes | 30c | 196.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 15c | 94.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked No | 65c | 70.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 34c | 63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 27c | 49.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 48.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 34c | 46.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…a514backed Yes | 30c | 36.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x632a…9edfbacked Yes | 43c | 28.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de1…916dbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 77c | 13.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aurora Gaming win ESL Pro League Season 23?this page
- Will Astralis win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will FUT Esports win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will Legacy win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will MOUZ win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will Natus Vincere win ESL Pro League Season 23?Yes won
- Will Team Spirit win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.