CS2 · resolved market
Will Natus Vincere win ESL Pro League Season 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd159b31171f0b1541d9e3947560486a2351acd0523252f479f3639cc44128d64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,615 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed Yes | 54c | 1,890$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.4 | 765 | 46.7%357 W · 408 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed No | 33c | 1,208$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.11 | 392 | 48.7%191 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 55c | 586.32$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.41 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Yes | 47c | 563.01$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.52 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 68c | 337.86$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.76 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 313.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.41 | 291 | 27.5%80 W · 211 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 36c | 305.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.12 | 476 | 41.6%198 W · 278 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 16c | 219.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.98 | 182 | 61%111 W · 71 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…4a02backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 384 | 52.3%201 W · 183 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846c…0366backed Yes | 39c | 147.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 189 | 63.5%120 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6747…a64fbacked Yes | 12c | 134.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.38 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed No | 45c | 124.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 33c | 105.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 64c | 94.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 22c | 91.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44de…be82backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Yes | 58c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…aad1backed Yes | 61c | 72.59$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 384 | 56.3%216 W · 168 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Yes | 67c | 71.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd59b…3ce2backed No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1a…a659backed Yes | 42c | 64.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…5fc8backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 46c | 59.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 50c | 57.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb972…f81cbacked Yes | 29c | 48.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 37c | 45.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Yes | 30c | 43.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 36.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 57c | 30.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 39c | 30.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 56c | 26.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…98d5backed Yes | 68c | 25.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f13…e224backed No | 45c | 25.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c3…5dd8backed Yes | 56c | 23.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…6e8bbacked Yes | 56c | 23.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…80e9backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Yes | 57c | 18.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 364 | 37.4%136 W · 228 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natus Vincere win ESL Pro League Season 23?this page
- Will Astralis win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will Aurora Gaming win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will FUT Esports win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will Legacy win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will MOUZ win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
- Will Team Spirit win ESL Pro League Season 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.