Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02afb808cd33bef13a5b6e8516faf8b31ad1a5f6111ba5282741c86c732e76bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 776.86$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 352.24$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.78 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 62c | 215.71$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.87 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 197.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.17 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 180.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 170.88$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 141.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 116.95$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.92 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 40c | 110.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 107.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 106.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 72c | 77.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 66c | 75.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 69.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3d…bdddbacked No | 65c | 57.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 66c | 54.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 36c | 47.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 29.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…268abacked Yes | 79c | 27.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 40c | 25.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 69c | 24.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 80c | 21.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 15.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.