Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02e98c7a18ab8d9c8e6f9eec8e68fce187eaa63d439820a264d4e5fbf7df42f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 1c | 26,940$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 6,963$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 3,597$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,535$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 24c | 815.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.52 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 799.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…17f4backed Yes | 3c | 433.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed Yes | 3c | 336.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 312.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 9c | 260.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 78c | 230.85$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 24c | 224.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 23c | 217.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 13c | 213.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 212.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 22c | 199.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 27c | 192.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 11c | 190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 24c | 180.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 14c | 159.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 21c | 153.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 135.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 9c | 124.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 24c | 123.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 24c | 123.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 20c | 100.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 25c | 100.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 94.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e5…3b8dbacked Yes | 12c | 91.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 86.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 22c | 83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 82.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2644…bbcebacked Yes | 29c | 78.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 75.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ff…8604backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 70.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 49.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 80c | 36.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 77c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 24.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 24.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…bf8fbacked No | 79c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 79c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.