Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52180ef41fe8ceae20a7e07a329c47f8d7301e52da2b2254c4380de085953d93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 0c | 13,980$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 44c | 2,855$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.21 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 28c | 1,773$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 30c | 1,093$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.55 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed Yes | 80c | 956.36$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.77 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 765.2$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 47c | 729.96$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.96 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 33c | 729.92$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.26 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 71c | 663.04$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.74 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 591.88$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 559.97$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.84 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 499.08$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 14c | 492.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 3c | 465.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 446.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 46c | 408.33$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.41 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed Yes | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 360.03$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 20c | 357.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 76c | 349.42$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 342.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 17c | 342.16$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 28c | 333.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 65c | 327.29$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 75c | 310.47$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 304.8$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 59c | 298.85$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.32 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 295.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 278.71$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 76c | 272$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 75c | 259.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 66c | 241.02$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 62c | 230.42$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 22c | 226.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 48c | 225.68$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 219.14$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 36c | 214.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 35c | 214.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 77c | 203.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 203.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked Yes | 74c | 199.99$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 60c | 199.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 25c | 197.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 195.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 36c | 190.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…8b39backed No | 26c | 190.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 80c | 189.64$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 52c | 188.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 36c | 186.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 11c | 176.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No | 23c | 175.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 77c | 163.54$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 156.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 18c | 155.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.91 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 36c | 154$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 65c | 152.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 48c | 152.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…aa66backed Yes | 66c | 149.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 146.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 53c | 145.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 72c | 138.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed No | 23c | 136.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 75c | 134.51$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 71c | 130.57$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 10c | 130.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 51c | 127.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 125.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 125.42$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 20c | 117.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 70c | 117.01$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 12c | 113.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 73c | 113.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 111.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 24c | 110.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked No | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 74c | 108.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 105.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 27c | 103.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 40c | 103.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 29c | 103$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 40c | 102.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 46c | 102.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…788cbacked No | 25c | 101.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 38c | 100.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede3…e3f2backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 77c | 96.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked No | 16c | 94.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 30c | 89.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 37c | 85.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 24c | 82.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.