Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5d0bbb73ed9533e4530bbd8934fe648e07e09e61c801447935c7033a8b1bad9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 29c | 2,065$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.84 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 977.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 765.2$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 700.39$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.41 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 663.43$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 9c | 594.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 515.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 34c | 500.84$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.97 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 80c | 390.12$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 364.82$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 17c | 340.05$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 13c | 332.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 295.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 18c | 294.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 6c | 277.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…5e5fbacked Yes | 22c | 274.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 16c | 269.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 264.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 241$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…b29fbacked Yes | 25c | 238.58$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 237.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 230.45$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 18c | 222.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 210.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 210$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…b7b9backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 199.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 192.68$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8c…f818backed Yes | 21c | 190.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 80c | 187.67$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 183.96$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 14c | 172.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 164.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 31c | 159.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 152.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…268fbacked Yes | 26c | 151$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 79c | 149.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 28c | 146.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 15c | 139.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 22c | 133.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 25c | 133.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 123.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…17f4backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 10c | 112.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked No | 75c | 112$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 111.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…6881backed Yes | 27c | 109.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 106.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…fafbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542e…c63bbacked Yes | 20c | 98.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 19c | 96.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 70c | 95.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 22c | 94.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 22c | 92.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 88.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 28c | 88.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 18c | 88.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 13c | 87.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 66c | 85.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 18c | 85.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea2…1d2cbacked Yes | 34c | 79.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 18c | 77.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed Yes | 15c | 76.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 71.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 71.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 15c | 70.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 66.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 65.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 22c | 65.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 61.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 19c | 56.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 55.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 51.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…0a91backed Yes | 24c | 50.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 23c | 49.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 24c | 46.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 30c | 45.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 31c | 43.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 35.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.