TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Team Falcons to win 2-0?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,099
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,099 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61b…05e5backed Yes51c4,724$2,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,292.851353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked No49c2,796$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.9210045%45 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed No45c1,275$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.7764744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked No50c1,007$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.568248.8%40 W · 42 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed No57c700.31$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.7238547.5%183 W · 202 L-0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3452…1ba0backed Yes44c608.81$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.1618351.9%95 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked No52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26021045.7%96 W · 114 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes43c499.12$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.555751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed Yes49c495.02$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.0214643.8%64 W · 82 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes38c434.85$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.461,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda78…73c1backed Yes53c425.8$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.47540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Yes44c419.26$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.2425956.8%147 W · 112 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Yes42c405.31$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23447548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked No49c399.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19826741.9%112 W · 155 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…e041backed No63c386.52$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.6455561.8%343 W · 212 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…2208backed No50c354.2$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked No51c348.34$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.917839.7%31 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed No57c274$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.6617330.1%52 W · 121 L-16.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed No51c249$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9922644.7%101 W · 125 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Yes50c240.17$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.179942.4%42 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes48c232.62$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.9654659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Yes43c197.01$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.67745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fcc…ee29backed Yes51c170$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.317451.7%90 W · 84 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed No59c155.73$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.542,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed No52c153.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8553634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No57c149.39$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.789256.5%52 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3296…c186backed Yes47c147.47$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4716552.1%86 W · 79 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed No51c146.93$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4781345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No56c142.77$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.978457.1%48 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No47c113$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2866545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Yes49c111.08$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.655056%28 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid0%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5167555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee45…200abacked Yes56c89.3$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.318046.1%83 W · 97 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked No43c82.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3289238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No53c53.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5793546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No50c53.21$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.741346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.751952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70fb…9d50backed Yes50c40.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.015444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked No54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.616550.3%83 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Yes48c39.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.685742.1%24 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No52c38.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.252950.9%269 W · 260 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Yes58c38.16$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0392561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No48c35.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2612552.8%66 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe432…934abacked No50c33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.412462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5000…c2bebacked Yes47c29.79$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.793441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No54c28.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.421752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Yes47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2585851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d8d…f40dbacked No51c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7544771.1%318 W · 129 L+27.1wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x657c…66a3backed No46c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No57c21.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No60c16.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.123043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.