Dota2 · resolved market
Team Falcons to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03e798c484b664c2d47c55a4fec28d528ce424715e51f2f52107a0d7b457c717
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa61b…05e5backed Yes | 51c | 4,724$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,292.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…eedebacked No | 49c | 2,796$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.92 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed No | 45c | 1,275$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.77 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked No | 50c | 1,007$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.56 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f4…ee16backed No | 57c | 700.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.72 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3452…1ba0backed Yes | 44c | 608.81$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.16 | 183 | 51.9%95 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked No | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 43c | 499.12$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.5 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Yes | 49c | 495.02$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.02 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 38c | 434.85$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.46 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…73c1backed Yes | 53c | 425.8$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Yes | 44c | 419.26$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.24 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Yes | 42c | 405.31$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked No | 49c | 399.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 267 | 41.9%112 W · 155 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed No | 63c | 386.52$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.64 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…2208backed No | 50c | 354.2$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked No | 51c | 348.34$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.91 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 57c | 274$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.66 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed No | 51c | 249$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.99 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked Yes | 50c | 240.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.17 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 48c | 232.62$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Yes | 43c | 197.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…ee29backed Yes | 51c | 170$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 174 | 51.7%90 W · 84 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed No | 59c | 155.73$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed No | 52c | 153.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 149.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Yes | 47c | 147.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed No | 51c | 146.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 142.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 113$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Yes | 49c | 111.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…200abacked Yes | 56c | 89.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 43c | 82.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 53c | 53.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 50c | 53.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fb…9d50backed Yes | 50c | 40.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 48c | 39.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 52c | 38.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Yes | 58c | 38.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 35.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked No | 50c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5000…c2bebacked Yes | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 54c | 28.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…f40dbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 447 | 71.1%318 W · 129 L | +27.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 57c | 21.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 60c | 16.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Team Falcons to win 2-0?this page
- Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming: Draw (1-1)?No won
- Vici Gaming to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.