NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x042d6c873dab90d60163038805e4c0c52c934201948b44a497e37cc4b9fd6743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 51c | 8,888$4,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,532.88 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Over | 49c | 8,387$4,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,308.47 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 51c | 4,444$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.45 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 2,959$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.51 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 46c | 2,283$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.66 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 54c | 2,167$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.67 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 1,972$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f74…558dbacked Under | 3c | 927.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 612$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Under | 51c | 563.75$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.51 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 49c | 404.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.4 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Under | 53c | 378.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.38 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…74cfbacked Over | 69c | 119.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x181d…c7e8backed Under | 52c | 117.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…d110backed Over | 44c | 102.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | +8.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 54c | 92.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 63.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…eca5backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Under | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Hornets won
- Warriors vs. HornetsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.