NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd7bf27e73a628e57dd3b51bac7d53331b328a835f615b0f31e08ec7f14da6f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Warriors | 54c | 4,066$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,870.28 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 54c | 1,798$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.4 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors | 59c | 1,296$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.37 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…8ea7backed Warriors | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Hornets | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked Warriors | 57c | 821$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.03 | 174 | 58%101 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Warriors | 57c | 750$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Warriors | 57c | 403.3$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.42 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 54c | 342$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.2 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Hornets | 42c | 333$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.86 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets | 48c | 309.79$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…bf76backed Hornets | 44c | 300$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Hornets | 61c | 300$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 38c | 273.52$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497a…883fbacked Hornets | 48c | 211.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors | 59c | 135.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…d693backed Warriors | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Warriors | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 127 | 63%80 W · 47 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f78ebacked Warriors | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 133 | 39.1%52 W · 81 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Warriors | 54c | 91.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Warriors | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…7e2dbacked Warriors | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 55c | 86.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Warriors | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Warriors | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Hornets | 62c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Warriors | 32c | 38.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a5…2862backed Warriors | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Warriors | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Warriors | 55c | 25.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Warriors | 58c | 23.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked Warriors | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Hornets won
- Warriors vs. HornetsWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.