Mls · resolved market
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0439f581b4765126d9b49e9519fdbe8cb1d0ed63ce79a74fc79aa13dc5f599ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Yes | 22c | 8,000$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,239.99 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 3,085$2,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,369.89 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 78c | 2,700$2,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,106 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 78c | 921$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.38 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 78c | 694$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.32 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 34c | 529.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.62 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 46c | 510.95$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.95 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 64c | 500$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 28c | 432.71$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.55 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 70c | 365.54$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.29 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 75c | 278.74$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked No | 60c | 271$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 63c | 268$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.02 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 73c | 265.54$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.6 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 78c | 262.92$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.31 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ae…a9dcbacked Yes | 71c | 249.33$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 33c | 235.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.08 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 27c | 225.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.44 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 37c | 212.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.36 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 78c | 208$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.24 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 197.44$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.49 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 89 | 19.1%17 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 35c | 144.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…8b54backed Yes | 23c | 135$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 21c | 129.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +114.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 80c | 86.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…9a6cbacked No | 34c | 86.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 76.02$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 23c | 63.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 27c | 53.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 61c | 52.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 67c | 52.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 50.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…d7e3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 27c | 48.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…8d89backed Yes | 22c | 46.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 28c | 42.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…1ff9backed No | 78c | 38.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Yes | 29c | 34.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…d4cebacked Yes | 66c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91c…baa7backed Yes | 73c | 30.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…962dbacked No | 63c | 29.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 64c | 18.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 77c | 18.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 78c | 17.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?this page
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-02-28?No won
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-02-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.