Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0448013abfdec947938cc1fe0b94639ff411c787e78839daa7ea99e8a1883b56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 12c | 968$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…06d7backed Yes | 38c | 904.72$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 17c | 834.9$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 4c | 834.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 2c | 690.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 626.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 8c | 522.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 10c | 498.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…a3e1backed Yes | 17c | 478.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 463.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 9c | 454.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 15c | 431.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 14c | 402.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 368.14$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 62c | 351.16$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.26 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 6c | 347.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 28c | 323.24$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 318.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 12c | 310.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 13c | 303.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…5da2backed Yes | 40c | 303.2$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 80c | 277.27$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 269.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…96c8backed Yes | 26c | 266.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 50c | 254.39$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 14c | 232.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 232$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce5…9906backed No | 65c | 210.91$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 7c | 208.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 12c | 208.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 17c | 207.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 206.07$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 10c | 204.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 78c | 203.66$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 10c | 172.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 165.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 11c | 160.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 15c | 151.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 141.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c53…6339backed Yes | 7c | 137.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 12c | 108.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 72c | 104.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked Yes | 14c | 99.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 21c | 97.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed Yes | 11c | 92.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 30c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed Yes | 50c | 66.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc53f…8d44backed Yes | 26c | 66.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked Yes | 25c | 58.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 59c | 57.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 23c | 55.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8b…39f2backed Yes | 29c | 50.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df4…cb65backed Yes | 23c | 47.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 41.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9783…264fbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 74cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…04fbbacked Yes | 48c | 36.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…3368backed Yes | 32c | 36.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 69c | 17.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 75c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.