Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d8a5695e47a5712b72e2bedd8e0c03b03371c07a70886f6085275f171f2fd5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 4c | 3,766$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fc…6742backed Yes | 0c | 3,331$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 49c | 1,538$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.2 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 1,352$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 50c | 1,075$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.36 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 70c | 1,011$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.25 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bd…3cf9backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.65 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 43c | 707.9$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.4 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 50c | 647.53$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.12 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 504.5$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 49c | 498.92$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.51 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 25c | 462.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.71 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 27c | 453.91$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 419.5$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 369.81$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 29c | 345.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 342.13$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1721…3c59backed Yes | 10c | 327.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 53c | 315.81$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.43 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 41c | 291.08$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 46c | 285.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.95 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 39c | 285.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 36c | 285.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 272.04$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 268$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.66 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 47c | 256.62$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 255.36$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 52c | 238.37$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 43c | 231.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.6 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 43c | 229.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 14c | 228.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.73 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53f…8d44backed Yes | 76c | 226.55$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 202.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.3 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 32c | 199.93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 197.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.51 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 181.3$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 180.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed No | 28c | 179.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.91 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…96c8backed Yes | 64c | 179.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 45c | 171.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.53 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 63c | 170$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 24c | 164.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.34 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 160.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 159.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 155.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 45c | 149.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 148$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 52c | 147.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 56c | 147.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.01 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed Yes | 68c | 143.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…a3e1backed Yes | 62c | 139.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 51c | 135.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 29c | 135.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 129$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 127.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 125.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 48c | 124.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed Yes | 46c | 122.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked Yes | 63c | 119.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 55c | 114$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 113$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 46c | 108.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 47c | 106.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 105.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…1936backed Yes | 57c | 105.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 24c | 104.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Yes | 34c | 103.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 37c | 100.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.02 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 96.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 42c | 93.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 92.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 84.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 29c | 81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 27c | 80.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 65c | 76.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 75.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 51c | 74.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef58…fffcbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 45c | 71.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee91…a6cdbacked Yes | 26c | 70.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 33c | 69.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 69.08$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…d101backed Yes | 74c | 67.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 39c | 66.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8b…39f2backed Yes | 64c | 65.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed Yes | 41c | 64.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.