Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cdd2bcd7321efb1b7859eda18b26cac22bf9c94479c9c3415603bcc1895dec9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8a…b9f8backed No | 7c | 1,538$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 45c | 774.73$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.05 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 769.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 37c | 758.23$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.66 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 25c | 750.54$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.45 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 36c | 744.6$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.16 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 26c | 681.06$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.62 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 52c | 665.17$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.98 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 655.08$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.07 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…06d7backed Yes | 31c | 651.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 28c | 626.06$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.49 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 572.08$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.85 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 540.9$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 33c | 513.7$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.78 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 39c | 494.77$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.31 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 28c | 437.8$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 34c | 420.44$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.44 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 419.65$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 389.43$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.05 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 28c | 382$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.56 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 4c | 341.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 340$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 43c | 338.93$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.68 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 333.91$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 302.35$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7937…e074backed No | 65c | 301.36$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 295$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 19c | 239.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 232.86$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 55c | 216.13$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 212.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 76c | 208.27$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.56 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…b57abacked Yes | 75c | 196.05$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 35c | 183.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab73…a3e1backed Yes | 65c | 173.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Yes | 48c | 167.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 61c | 166.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 161.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 30c | 159.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.03 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 155.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 148.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 35c | 144.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked Yes | 23c | 137.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 37c | 136.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.27 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 135.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 116.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 113$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 62c | 109.65$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 108.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 39c | 107.68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 46c | 107.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.41 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 62c | 103.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 99.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 93.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 48c | 93.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed Yes | 35c | 85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 83.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 35c | 83.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 49c | 73.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…10c1backed No | 68c | 73.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 66c | 72.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 57c | 72.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 71.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 29c | 69.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 68.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 57c | 66.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 74c | 64.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 38c | 62.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…96c8backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 38c | 59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 29c | 58.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f22…e113backed No | 73c | 56.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed Yes | 69c | 55.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 29c | 54.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 62c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd18…c3fcbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 37c | 52.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…68ffbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff82…bd3cbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 47c | 48.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 64c | 46.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.