Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0455f619f45507b745f376ca07678bea85049747875431b10e8ee1d18c31b252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 568.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 18c | 541.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.78 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 15c | 341.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.41 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 318.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.85 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 35c | 275.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 228.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 205.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 194.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.1 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 177.95$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 7c | 143.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 138.12$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 79c | 137.8$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.74 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 11c | 137.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 53c | 135.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 16c | 135.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 128$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 26c | 122.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 111.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 107.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 75c | 106.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 18c | 100.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 13c | 100.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 94.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.79 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…62a3backed Yes | 35c | 76.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 22c | 74.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 74.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 76c | 64.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 26c | 59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 77c | 58.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 73c | 53.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 72c | 52.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 21c | 52.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 32c | 46.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 26c | 40.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 36.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 57c | 33.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 30.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 75c | 27.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 23.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 22.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 69c | 21.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 76c | 20.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…64ccbacked No | 77c | 15.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 14.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…acb2backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or below on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.