Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb66e40499d9bb27f6976325a4d57f1a75893fb51949b1cd6c2bde51d59f4208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 78c | 636.75$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 315.38$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 60c | 299.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.39 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 55c | 275.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 68c | 174.73$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 159.12$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 138.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 51c | 132.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 30c | 124.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 44c | 122$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 55c | 120.56$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 106.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 17c | 95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 92.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 86.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 58c | 84.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 80.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 61c | 79.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 77.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 59c | 72.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 41c | 63.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 42c | 61.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 42c | 61.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 61.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 57.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 56.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 39c | 50.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 45.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 42.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 46c | 39.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 38.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 46c | 37.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 46c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 65c | 36.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 36.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed Yes | 57c | 35.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 68c | 34.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 59c | 34.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 60c | 33.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 72c | 33.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 35c | 31.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 43c | 30.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 30.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 30.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 42c | 28.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 27.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 27.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 79c | 26.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 58c | 25.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 25.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 22.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 62c | 22.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 18.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c0…8e32backed No | 68c | 16.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 77c | 13.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or below on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.