Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x406281d1414408ef9b40f30435acb240c39dd833c16c903c14bf1326ae07b147
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 67c | 441$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 23c | 387.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 34c | 358.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.68 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 303.94$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 966 | 33.3%322 W · 644 L | +27.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 19c | 300.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 241$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 632 | 43.2%273 W · 359 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 240.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 880 | 49.5%436 W · 444 L | -26.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 204.57$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 202.7$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 190.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 21c | 178.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 63c | 166.84$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 634 | 24.1%153 W · 481 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 151.22$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Yes | 32c | 147$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 41c | 146.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 25c | 137.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 130.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 28c | 129.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 127.18$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 18c | 125.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 408 | 66.4%271 W · 137 L | +35.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 20c | 123.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 117.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 116.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 109$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 847 | 48.5%411 W · 436 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 25c | 97.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 331 | 40.2%133 W · 198 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 79c | 97.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 25c | 97.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 23c | 96.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 21c | 94.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 33c | 93.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 33c | 93.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -17.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…5866backed Yes | 33c | 93.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 93.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 24c | 91.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 553 | 42.9%237 W · 316 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 84.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 79c | 78.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 913 | 73.3%669 W · 244 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 76.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 31c | 74.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…1f46backed No | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691d…599fbacked No | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…e575backed No | 80c | 67.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 58.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,566 | 16.3%255 W · 1,311 L | +22.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 70c | 58.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 1,005 | 51.8%521 W · 484 L | +108.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 24c | 57.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | +30.3wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 56.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 18c | 55.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 33c | 52.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 247 | 31.2%77 W · 170 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 27c | 50.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 49.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 48.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 48.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 47.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1,406 | 30.9%435 W · 971 L | -93.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 65c | 46.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 60c | 46.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 447 | 66.9%299 W · 148 L | +39.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 33c | 45.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 513 | 74.1%380 W · 133 L | +34.3wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 265 | 42.6%113 W · 152 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 39c | 39.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 80c | 39.34$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 880 | 59.4%523 W · 357 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 38.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes | 45c | 34.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 75c | 33.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 154 | 76%117 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 66c | 28.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 74c | 26.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 242 | 70.2%170 W · 72 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed No | 78c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 22.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 353 | 69.4%245 W · 108 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 71c | 17.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 14.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1,321 | 75.9%1,003 W · 318 L | +18.6wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or below on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.