MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04641983253d4efb5079fee06f38503b164d0811085f9e2414b6002549acc72f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5911…a5a8backed Under | 53c | 4,725$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.19 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 4,724$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220.38 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689f…259cbacked Under | 53c | 3,072$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.93 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e3…2bcabacked Under | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 2,614$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.85 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 55c | 1,600$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 56c | 1,052$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.46 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 964.16$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.23 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 930$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.18 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 48c | 835$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.8 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 819.89$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.35 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 46c | 771.28$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.13 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 44c | 639.2$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.25 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 13c | 499.16$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…e183backed Under | 56c | 317.3$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.61 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 300$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.91 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 196.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 75c | 194.1$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over | 14c | 170.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 109.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 52c | 104$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 366 | 50.8%186 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 39c | 101.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…1306backed Under | 56c | 94.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 48c | 92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…0f04backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 84.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 62c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 52c | 73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Over | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Under | 56c | 40.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 45c | 39.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed Under | 56c | 28.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…f338backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.