MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e1b830c8819caed134e1ec9696dee385937cf30dbeff0241b07d13757ae56b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dc1…b33cbacked Over | 47c | 28,000$13,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,160 | 260 | 56.9%148 W · 112 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 27,978$14,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,148.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 15,176$8,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,228.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 8,241$3,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,450.37 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 46c | 3,567$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.35 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 55c | 3,331$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.39 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 2,925$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.22 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 44c | 2,015$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.4 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,085$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.9 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 56c | 888.44$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.96 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 46c | 746.28$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.99 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 631.99$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.23 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 582.3$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 44c | 487.56$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.25 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 57c | 457$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.49 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 56c | 443$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.08 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 71c | 427.52$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 61c | 369.38$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 44c | 305.09$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.8 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 57c | 207.32$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 57c | 175.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 56c | 158$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.48 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 56c | 142.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Over | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Over | 54c | 120.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 45c | 113.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over | 48c | 109.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 90.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b5…2ff8backed Over | 56c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 56c | 41.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 53c | 38.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 55c | 35.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 54c | 31.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 55c | 30.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 26.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 75c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 58c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.