MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x047accea00185fa764c11ae94bbd05ddc9933d8d7f83e7e375a572a9a7f493b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 61c | 24,123$14,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,663.68 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 6,381$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,956.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 39c | 5,868$2,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,569.12 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 5,790$3,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,617.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 3,626$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 70c | 2,018$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.37 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 33c | 1,710$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 58c | 752.63$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.08 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 37c | 548$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.96 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 39c | 231.33$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Over | 73c | 160.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 40c | 146.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 43c | 117.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 25c | 101$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 70c | 81.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Over | 38c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Under | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 46c | 73.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 58.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x387f…70a8backed Under | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 28c | 47.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 53c | 45.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 32c | 44.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 39c | 42.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Over | 36c | 42.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…1173backed Over | 42c | 26.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 57c | 26.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 65c | 22.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Under | 70c | 17.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 18.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.