TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,634
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,734

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,634 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x20d6…3856backed No51c4,815$2,435 inWon+$2,379.1423351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes53c4,016$2,128 inLost-$2,128.091,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes52c1,491$775 inLost-$775.322,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1f…9136backed No51c643.24$328 inWon+$315.1913850%69 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No47c600$282 inWon+$31861352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes51c308.16$157 inLost-$157.1625249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes39c282.99$111 inLost-$111.488,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No49c237.62$116 inWon+$121.1950751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed No61c237.41$145 inWon+$92.5934650.9%176 W · 170 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Yes39c204$80 inLost-$79.725,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No59c200$118 inWon+$821,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Yes15c146.8$21 inLost-$21.3943043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Yes49c129.98$64 inLost-$63.691,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f3…1f2abacked No48c103.12$49 inWon+$53.625446.3%25 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes49c100$49 inLost-$496,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes49c87.63$43 inLost-$42.9448653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe04…a198backed No60c83.33$50 inWon+$33.333246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Yes46c71.2$33 inLost-$32.7590446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes49c69.06$34 inLost-$33.841,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed No53c35.72$19 inWon+$16.726,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed No65c27$18 inWon+$9.4562554.2%339 W · 286 L+23.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.