MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a40c693a12947e08866a904a3b0f13087355158198696884b14ffe830dc8d19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 45c | 22,397$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 7,992$4,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,548.77 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 73c | 4,490$3,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.25 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 493 | 58.8%290 W · 203 L | +30.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 1,747$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.84 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 55c | 1,432$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.4 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 56c | 1,261$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.9 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 62c | 873.37$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.4 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 56c | 810$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.36 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 799.98$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.99 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 79c | 577$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.96 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 80c | 566.3$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 80c | 566.3$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 63c | 547.28$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.13 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Under | 43c | 474.78$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.16 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 57c | 469.33$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.29 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 438.14$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.14 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 56c | 380.68$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 49c | 292$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.92 | 290 | 43.1%125 W · 165 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 269.25$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Over | 57c | 258.4$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.11 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 80c | 254.83$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 56c | 248.64$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 236.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7886…ec60backed Under | 12c | 162.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 57c | 156$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 41c | 135$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 43c | 129.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed Over | 78c | 126.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 56c | 119.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 61c | 107.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 79c | 85.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 28c | 85.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5894…c28ebacked Under | 28c | 79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 59c | 74.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Under | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 18c | 66.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 549 | 51.2%281 W · 268 L | +29.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Over | 62c | 51.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 69c | 47.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 56c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Over | 74c | 22.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 20.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 73c | 16.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 13.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 18.5Under won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.